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Paris FC vs Toulouse

Fri 15 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Paris FC win: 42.2%

Draw: 29.2%

Toulouse win: 28.6%

Predicted: Paris FC

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.68

More corners: Paris FC (57.4% home / 42.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Paris FC

Yes

Probability Paris FC wins or draws: 65.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Paris FC Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 29%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Paris FC win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.